Prime Ministers: Indira Gandhi, Morarji Desai
Partition, planning, aid consortia and nationalised banks.
Bank Rate
9%
unchanged on 1976
Rupee per dollar
₹8.77
−2.3% on 1976
Inflation
8.31%
+15.94 pts on 1976
GDP growth
7.25%
+5.59 pts on 1976
Reserves
$6,085m
+63.2% on 1976
External debt
$15,415m
+5.7% on 1976
Political regime · 21 March 1977
Followed by the FERA-driven exits of Coca-Cola and IBM, the 1978 demonetisation and the 1978 RBI gold auctions (volume ?).
ReportedOfficial record. Source: PMO; RBI history
Janata government: FERA enforcement and small-scale reservation
IBM announced its exit 1977-78). The Industrial Policy Statement of 1977-12-23 expanded reservations for small-scale industry to about 800 items. The import liberalisation of 1978 (Alexander Committee) falls after this decade.
ReportedOfficial record. Source: GoI Industrial Policy Statement 1977; press reports 1977
Licence-and-permit regime (background)
The industrial licensing system remained in force across the whole window: "Up to 80 government agencies had to be satisfied before private companies could produce something and, if granted, the government would regulate production." Real growth over the era averaged about 3.5% a year, Raj Krishna's "Hindu rate of growth". This is the constraint against which every 1980s liberalisation below must be measured
ReportedPress. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Licence_Raj
City of London influence on terms, negative finding
What I could document is only: (a) two London bank accounts held by Bofors middleman Ottavio Quattrocchi (€3 mn and US$1 mn), frozen and then released by the UK authorities, with about ₹21 crore (US$4.6 mn) withdrawn before the freeze, i.e. London as a venue for the proceeds of an Indian defence contract, not as an author of trade terms; and (b) no documentary evidence opened by me of sterling-area or City conditionality attached to India's 1980–81 borrowing. The conditionality that is documented ran through the IMF (Washington), not London. Contrast the 1949 and 1966 sterling devaluations and the 1991 episode, which belong to other slices
ReportedPress. Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bofors_scandal
| Creditor | Instrument | Amount | US$ m | Status | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IMF Trust Fund | Concessional Trust Fund loans (two periods) | 529 SDR | 640 | repaid 1986 – Feb 1991 | estimated |
| IBRD + IDA | Cumulative commitments to India; more than two-thirds from IDA | 6,900 | amortising | verified |
Rows are listed as recorded. Some describe the same loan from different sources and must not be added together.
