Crude oil / equities · 20 March 2003
Iraq invasion
Brent spike before the invasion, then fall once the war began (exact ?)
Sensex bottomed in spring 2003 before a multi-year rally
ReportedOfficial record. Source: EIA Brent series; BSE
Prime Minister: A. B. Vajpayee
The Age Of Stars
The gold airlift, liberalisation, and a floating rupee.
Vol. CXXIXThe edition of 2003 · The Open Economy10 records
- Prime Minister
- A. B. Vajpayee
- President
- A. P. J. Abdul Kalam
- Finance Minister
- Jaswant Singh
- RBI Governors
- Bimal Jalan · Y. V. Reddy
Rupee per dollar
₹46.59
−4.2% on 2002
Inflation
3.81%
−0.49 pts on 2002
GDP growth
7.86%
+4.06 pts on 2002
Reserves
$103,737m
+44.9% on 2002
External debt
$118,885m
+12.4% on 2002
Brent crude
$29
+15.4% on 2002
Markets & Money
2 itemscrude oil; INR; shipping war-risk premia · 20 March 2003
US-led invasion of Iraq; oil spike
Brent is widely described as peaking around USD 34/bbl in March 2003; not verified in this session (see ENERGY slice for the price series)
UnconfirmedOfficial record. Source: Not sourced in this session
external accounts · 1 January 2003
Reserve build-up and the "still a net debtor?" question
Reserves rose every year; the claim that India became a creditor to the IMF in 2003 is a claim I was asked to verify and could not verify to a primary document in this session (see Gaps)
Markets-adjacent rather than a shock; included because it is the decade's structural turning point
UnconfirmedOfficial record. Source: not verified, see Gaps
Trade & Tariffs
1 itemFTA
India–ASEAN Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation, Bali, 2003 (India's largest FTA…
India–ASEAN Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation, Bali, 2003 (India's largest FTA negotiation of the decade). Date not verified in this session
UnconfirmedOfficial record. Source: Ministry of Commerce & Industry, not opened in this session
War & Unrest
2 itemsPersian Gulf
US-led invasion of Iraq
Oil price risk premium before the invasion. Parliament passed a resolution deploring the war (2003-04-08), and India declined to send troops (2003-07). Gulf war-risk premia spiked to 3.5% of hull (see [M10])
ReportedOfficial record. Source: Lok Sabha resolution 2003-04-08; AFP via Strauss Center
Iraq / Persian Gulf
Iraq war (March–May 2003)
Brent crude spike; India's oil import bill; war-risk insurance surcharges on Gulf shipping. See FLASHPOINT for the oil-price row
UnconfirmedOfficial record. Source: Not sourced in this session for the war-risk rates; see Gaps
Courts & Scandal
1 itemstate excise / stamp duty / printing
Telgi fake stamp-paper scam
Convictions secured; Abdul Karim Telgi sentenced (2006-07). National revenue leakage estimate varies by authority, no figure verified to a primary document in this session
UnconfirmedOfficial record. Source: Not sourced in this session to a primary document; see Gaps
Shipping & Insurance
1 itemall (hull)
Northern Gulf / waters around Iraq
ReportedPress. Source: [M10] Perrine Faye, AFP, 2004-04-28, via Strauss Center
The Ledger: what was borrowed in 2003
Full ledger →| Creditor | Instrument | Amount | US$ m | Status | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Small bilateral donors | Budget 2003-04: prepayment of USD 3 bn of external loans; small donors asked to route aid through NGOs | 3,000 | done | verified | |
| International Monetary Fund | India becomes a creditor (no longer a net borrower) to the IMF's Financial Transaction Plan | Repaid early / exited borrower status | unknown |
Rows are listed as recorded. Some describe the same loan from different sources and must not be added together.
